The price of anti-Americanism

17 March 2011

The Americans have changed their mind about imposing a no-fly zone in Libya.  The world has seen the price of the anti-Americanism which led to America’s holding back from intervening in Libya.  The responsibility laid upon the UN has been shown to be too much for its uneven shoulders, as it has dithered to the point that Gaddafi has recovered from the initial shock of the uprising and is within an ace of suppressing it.

The possibility of Gaddafi’s success has galvanised the Arab League to unilaterally request the United Nations Security Council to impose “a no-fly zone against any military action against the Libyan people.” This unprecedented move seems to have produced a change of mind in the American administration.

After the UN failure to act in time, America is supporting Britain and France who are tabling a resolution at the United Nations tonight to impose a no-fly zone.  A no-fly zone will require commitment to follow through with troops on the ground if it does not work, for most of Gaddafi’s offensive is ground-based.  The failure to follow through in Iraq was the notable failure of the Iraq campaign and it appears that the same mistake will be made here.  What time has there been to formulate a proper post-intervention plan?

It is possibly too late to act as Gaddafi is already a step ahead by offering terms of surrender to the opposition.  For the UN to intervene at this stage could be seen to be prolonging the conflict and promoting further bloodshed.  The Libyan opposition was deceived into thinking that they could accomplish this alone, then that the UN could act without America.  This is the price paid for anti-Americanism.

The Facebook revolution is causing concern in various Middle East countries.  The writing is on the wall for dictatorships.  The Arab League appears to have cast in its lot with the west, in favour of managed change instead of bloody suppression of civil protest.  China learned from the undignified collapse of the USSR and the subsequent power vacuum.  In the dictatorial undemocratic areas of the world, China has led the way in managing change to a capitalist economy although it has a long way to go in democratic terms.  If the Arab League can oversee and manage democratic change in the Middle East without the bloody conflict we see in Libya, it will do a service to the people it serves as well as to the rest of the world.  We hope that Egypt will be a model for change for the region.